Author: Deep Tide TechFlow
US Stocks: AMD's "Earnings Disaster" Ignites Tech Stock Sell-off
Today's main character is AMD, whose earnings report triggered a tech stock bloodbath.
The report seemed decent on the surface:
- Q4 revenue of $10.27 billion, exceeding expectations of $9.67 billion
- Adjusted EPS of $1.53, exceeding expectations of $1.32
- Q1 guidance: $9.8 billion (±$300 million), also slightly above the expected $9.38 billion
So why was the market furious?
The problem wasn't the numbers, but the expectation gap. Some Wall Street analysts expected AMD to provide more aggressive guidance, given the booming AI hype. When the guidance was "only slightly better than expected" rather than "far exceeding expectations," the market chose to vote with its feet.
More fatally: operating expenses were out of control. AMD's operating expenditures were $200 million higher than guidance, marking several consecutive quarters of overspending.
JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur was straightforward: "AMD has been 'overspending' consistently, which hurts profitability."
The chain reaction caused AMD to plummet 17%; Broadcom fell 7%; Micron fell 11%; Lam Research fell 10%; Applied Materials fell 9%; Nvidia fell 3%; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped sharply, and the entire chip sector was slaughtered.
The nightmare for the software sector continues. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) fell another 4% today, plunging 17% cumulatively over the week.
The root of the panic stems from Anthropic's release of an AI automation tool last week capable of handling legal work. This made the market suddenly realize: AI isn't just an assistant for software; it might be the terminator of software.
If AI can automatically process legal documents, generate code, and manage customer relationships, can the subscription-based SaaS business models survive?
Not all tech stocks are crashing; there were winners today too:
Eli Lilly surged 8%: Q4 earnings far exceeded expectations; 2026 guidance: revenue of $80-83 billion (expected $77.6 billion), EPS of $33.5-35 (expected $33.23); sales of weight-loss drug Zepbound grew 122%, diabetes drug Mounjaro grew 110%.
Super Micro Computer rose 10%: Q2 earnings beat expectations, raised full-year guidance to $40 billion (expected $36.1 billion); strong demand for AI servers.
Amgen rose 3.67%: Strong earnings boosted the stock, making healthcare one of the few safe havens today.
Uber fell 5%; Chipotle plunged 6%, these figures again confirming: US consumers are tightening their wallets.
Cryptocurrency: Falls Below $74,000, 16-Month Low
This afternoon, Bitcoin briefly fell below $73,000, hitting a new low since November 2024.
Ethereum fell below $2,200.
Why did Bitcoin fall harder than tech stocks?
Bitcoin has an extremely high correlation with the Nasdaq. When AMD triggered the chip stock crash and the Nasdaq fell 1.5%, Bitcoin, as the "king of risk assets," naturally fell more.
Interestingly, mining companies that pivoted to AI infrastructure also crashed today:
Cipher Mining fell over 10%; IREN fell over 10%; Hut 8 fell over 10%.
The reason? AMD's plunge made the market start questioning the return on investment in AI infrastructure. These companies just switched from "mining" to "AI computing power" and encountered fears of an AI bubble burst.
The only bright spot, TeraWulf rose 12%, due to acquiring two US sites, but this was an isolated case.
Hasegawa from Japanese crypto analysis firm Bitbank said: "$70,000 might be a key reference point for a short-term bottom. A substantial break below this level might require a major reset of market conditions."
Precious Metals: Gold Breaks $5,000, Momentum Strong
Gold extended its rebound, breaking through the $5,000 mark
Spot gold settled around $5,010-$5,050/oz, gaining over 2% intraday. This follows yesterday's surge of 6% (the largest single-day gain since 2008).
Silver continued its rally, rising 7%, reclaiming levels above $85.
Why can gold continue to rebound?
Falling from $5,600 last Friday to $4,400 on Monday, gold dropped over 20%. This plunge washed out leverage and created buying opportunities.
Long-term investors and central banks bought the dip. After surging 6% yesterday, it continued rising today, indicating very determined buying.
The US Dollar Index fell today, providing support for gold. The Renminbi rose to a 2.5-year high against the dollar, also reflecting broad dollar weakness.
Gold's long-term target remains unchanged
Mainstream Wall Street institutions remain bullish:
JPMorgan: Year-end target $6,300
- Deutsche Bank: Year-end target $6,000
Near the current $5,000, there's still over 20% upside potential.
The Market's Deep Logic: Fears of an AI Bubble Burst?
Today's market moves exposed a core problem: The pace of AI commercial monetization is seriously lagging behind the growth in capital expenditure.
AMD's problem isn't that revenue growth is too slow (26% YoY growth is already strong), but that costs are out of control. To stay competitive in the AI race, AMD is burning cash疯狂烧钱, but the market is starting to question: Can this money bring corresponding returns?
If even a core AI chip player like AMD can't control costs, can those downstream AI application companies, software companies, and infrastructure companies actually make money?
Key Events for the Rest of the Week
Thursday - Friday:
- Alphabet (Google) Earnings
- Amazon Earnings
- Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday)
- US-Iran Talks (Friday)
If Google/Amazon earnings disappoint, tech stocks could crash further.
If US-Iran talks break down, escalating geopolitical risks, gold will rise further.
